Blogs & Comment

Betting on the election

Its election time in Canada, with a Federal Election to be held on Oct. 14, 2008. If you are the investor or trader type, you can bet on the outcome by going to the Election Stock Market website hosted by the University of British Columbia (UBC).
Normally, betting on an election would be illegal in Canada, but its allowed in this instance because this non-profit stock market is part of a research project carried out by two UBC professors. They are exploring market and trader behaviour and particularly whether or not people betting on the outcome of events, like elections, are better predictors than opinion polls or panels of experts.
Some academic studies have already concluded as much, so even if you arent the betting type it may be interesting to check in on the site to see who is projected to win, and whether or not itll be another minority government. Already, on the first day of trading, over 90 investors have laid down average bets of $264. The minimum trade allowed is $25 and the maximum is $1,000.
Last checked, the UBC stock marketwas forecasting the following seat distribution: Conservatives — 139, Liberals — 93, NDP — 36, BLQ — 38 and Others – 2. A majority government requires 155 seats.