Intrade.coms prediction markets on the U.S. Presidential election are the most popular on the betting website, and have high trading volumes. This makes their forecasts worth consideration compared to low-volume Intrade.com markets such as the one for a U.S. recession (mentioned in my previous post).
At the moment, Democrat candidate Barack Obama is ahead. According to Intrade.com bettors, his chances of winning the 2008 presidential election stand at 62%, compared to 35.4% for Republican candidate John McCain. But the vote is still a long way off; a lot could happen in the meantime.