We’re no Nate Silver, but here are our predictions for five people to watch in 2013:
Christy Clark will walk the plank
Few tears will be shed by Canada’s natural resource sector when B.C. voters show “Shotgun Christy” the door in the upcoming May provincial election. Her government was no big friend to energy, telling Enbridge in July that it better cut B.C. a bigger slice of the pipeline’s profit pie if it hopes to build Northern Gateway. When the heir-apparent NDP cinches the election, however, it won’t be much friendlier. Leader Adrian Dix has made no secret of his party’s opposition to the project. Hey, look on the bright side, Enbridge: you can’t get shaken down for a larger slice of a $0 pie.
Tiff Macklem will become Bank of Canada Governor
“Simply the best” is a hard act to follow, but central banker Tiff Macklem is ready for his close-up. When the mild-mannered Bank of Canada senior deputy governor is promoted to the top post—as many, including former TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond, predict—he’ll have no problem filling Mark Carney’s big, shiny oxfords. After all, the outgoing governor of the Bank of Canada didn’t become a superstar with flashy, risky monetary policies—he’s worshipped for his prudence. Carney’s second-in-command should have no problem staying the course. That will serve him well enough—at first. Whether he’ll do what Canada really needs and raise the overnight lending rate is less clear.
Justin Bieber will begin his bad-boy phase
Whether his 13-year-old fans like it or not, Justin is getting older. As he moves further into his awkward becoming-aman phase, Biebermania will wane. It already has: the Biebs wasn’t Google Canada’s No. 1 music search in 2012, ceding that throne to boy band One Direction. And 2013 already has seen Justin doing things stars in their late teens do— being caught with a joint, for example—inaugurating the triumphant next stage of his career— the ne’er-do-well troubled heartthrob.
Nate Silver’s backlash finally arrives
He correctly predicted nearly every facet of the 2012 U.S. presidential election, becoming a poster boy for nerdly excellence. This year, he’ll finally get something wrong. It could be anything—the Oscars, perhaps, or the Super Bowl. It doesn’t matter. While it will be merely the exception that proves his rule—namely, that there is no such thing as 100% certainty in the science of probability—his (mainly Republican) haters will jump on this as evidence he’s a huckster and a fraud. (He won’t care.)
Yahoo will dump Marissa Mayer
Upon being hired to lead a Fortune 500 company in 2012 while pregnant with her first child, the 37-year-old Yahoo CEO became a reluctant symbol of the new have-it-all female exec. This year, however, she’ll face extreme pressure to perform. If she doesn’t right the sinking former tech powerhouse, her job will be at risk. Mayer is taking the right steps—she announced a Yahoo Mail upgrade in December that would make it accessible with iOS, Android and Windows 8. But it will take more than that—a miracle, to be precise—to resuscitate Yahoo’s innovator status. Ergo, Mayer may find herself jobless by the end of the year.